Card toolkit / Probability

Will your key card be prized?

A quick look at the odds, from one crucial copy to a full playset.

Set up your deck

Use whole numbers. Deck size: 1–500. Copies and prizes cannot exceed the deck size.

What these odds mean

The model draws the specified number of prizes uniformly from the full deck, without replacement. “Not prized” includes cards in your opening hand or remaining deck. It does not model an opening-hand requirement, mulligans, or other information you already know.

Probability of exactly k copies in prizes: C(copies, k) × C(deck − copies, prizes − k) ÷ C(deck, prizes).

Your odds

At least one copy is not prized

99.15%

Possible prize outcomes
Copies prizedProbability